Winter election in the air for Germany as Olaf Scholz under pressure to get the timing right

Germany is braced for a winter federal election campaign after chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated he was open to moving forward voting day from his original plan of next March.
Two days after Scholz fired his finance minister Christian Lindner, collapsing his three-way “traffic light” coalition after three years in office, opposition parties have accused the chancellor of trying to cling to power without a parliamentary majority.
Speaking in Budapest, Scholz said “we should discuss the [election] date as calmly as possible”. He expressed hope, too, that “the democratic parliamentary groups in the Bundestag could reach an agreement on which laws can still be passed this year”.
That was a nod to plans by his Social Democratic (SPD) parliamentary party to table a series of proposals, requiring votes from the opposition benches, to stimulate Germany’s recession-hit economy and struggling industry.
The opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is wary of such appeals for cross-party support, sensing an SPD electoral trap. Its officials say they have little to gain by supporting a minority Scholz administration, given the CDU and its Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) sister party are leading polls on 33 per cent support.
Twice as popular as the SPD, in third place on 16 per cent, the CDU/CSU has more support than the three outgoing coalition parties taken together. On Friday CDU leader Friedrich Merz demanded the chancellor table an election for January 19th next.
“On January 20th, 2025, a Monday, the new American government will take office,” said Mr Merz. “Having a federal election on January 19th, technically possible and my recommendation, would show that Germany will soon have a government with a majority and able to act.”
As a lesson from interwar parliamentary instability, the postwar Bundestag allows the opposition topple a sitting chancellor only if it has a majority for a replacement.
Such a “constructive no-confidence vote” is unlikely, however, as it would oblige the CDU to seek support from other parties including the largely shunned extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD).
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The only other path for an early election is for Scholz to table a confidence motion, knowing it will fail. This allows him file a request with president Frank-Walter Steinmeier for an early dissolution of parliament.
“Were Scholz to apply to Steinmeier next week for new elections, the president must decide by the first week of December and then you have to vote within 60 days or around the end of January,” said Prof Klaus Schubert, political scientist at the University of Münster.
Speaking in Budapest, Scholz added another proviso: any early poll “must meet the requirements of the federal returning officer”.
As if on cue, the federal returning officer sounded the alarm. An election immediately after the Christmas break would bring serious risks; in particular it would mean a scramble for smaller parties and local authorities to organise themselves in time.
“The proper preparation and organisation of the election is essential for citizens’ trust in democracy,” wrote Ruth Brand, the chief federal returning officer, in a letter to Scholz. Voting in January brought a “high risk that the cornerstone of democracy and trust in the integrity of the election could be violated”.
Some 65 per cent of respondents to a public television poll favoured a January election, while 59 per cent said they welcomed the premature end of the Scholz-led coalition. The poll indicated that 40 per cent of voters blame the liberal FDP for the coalition’s collapse, after months of squabbling over budgets and public debt. It is currently polling 3 per cent, two points below the hurdle to enter the Bundestag.